Turkey, Sweden and NATO: Ball is in Sweden's court!

Ashkar Thasleem

The Russian invasion of Ukraine has led Finland and Sweden to apply for NATO membership, abandoning their longtime military neutrality. They see NATO as a protector from potential Russian threats in the future.

All member countries have ratified Finland’s accession, a condition NATO made a must to obtain new membership in the transatlantic military alliance, but Turkey and Hungary have yet to ratify Sweden’s accession.

Turkey asserts that Sweden must take the necessary actions to prevent PKK terrorists from operating in Sweden, a demand Sweden agreed upon but has not acted upon, Turkey believes.

"A crystal clear message to our Swedish Friends! Fulfill your commitments arising from Trilateral Memorandum & take concrete steps in the fight against terrorism. The rest will follow" tweeted then Turkish foreign minister Mevlut Cavucoglu.

In a trilateral memorandum signed by the foreign ministers of Turkey, Finland, and Sweden on June 28, 2022, in Madrid, Finland and Sweden agreed to address Turkey’s legitimate security concerns, including the extradition of PKK terrorists wanted in Turkey and not supporting the PKK and its offshoots.

In an interview with a Swedish daily, the Swedish foreign minister, Tobias Billstrom, was quoted as saying the PKK has "extensive work in Sweden to raise money and finance terrorist activities aimed at Türkiye".

Turkey had requested that Sweden extradite a number of Turkish citizens wanted in Turkey for supporting the PKK and Gulen movement, but the response from Sweden seems to be less serious for Turkey, though a few steps have been taken.

The PKK, a Kurdish militant organization that fought decades of war against the Turkish state, is an outlawed organization in Turkey, the US, and the EU.

Gulen movement is blamed for the failed coup in 2016.

Ankara believes NATO members must support member states to address their security concerns.

The west was expecting Turkey to ratify Sweden’s accession to NATO if Kemal Kilicdaroglu of the six-table coalition won the presidential election in May, but contrary to all western hopes, expectations, and predictions, incumbent Recep Tayyip Erdogan emerged as the clear winner of the presidential election.

Erdogan has a different approach to geopolitical issues, from the Libyan conflict to the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

The US and the EU are backing Ukraine in its resistance to Russia, but Turkey maintains a balanced approach to the war.

Turkey sold its infamous Bayraktar drones to Ukraine, but has not joined the West in imposing sanctions on Russia. This balanced approach led Turkey to broker a grain deal with Putin to allow the export of Ukrainian grains to the world, evading a major world food crisis.

For Turkey's independent approach to geopolitical matters, one of the reasons lies in Turkey’s neighborhood. Turkey is surrounded by regions that have been war-torn for decades. Thus, Turkey has different concerns than NATO allies in non-war-torn regions.

Turkey faces direct terrorist threats from the PKK from within Turkey and from Syria and Iraq. This forced Turkey to design its foreign policy more independently from its traditional NATO allies.

Thus, Sweden’s NATO accession will be decided by how it responds to Turkey’s legitimate security concerns!